Dutch Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Voters in the Netherlands are set to potentially replace the most conservative government in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous government in the summer, when rightwing politician Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies deemed him too controversial for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on June 3 after his allies declined to implement a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to patrol borders, turning back all refugee applicants, closing most asylum centers and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, typically an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
There are 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Netherlands political life have been characterized in modern times by a sharp decline in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from over four-fifths in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this trend has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It advocates, among other policies, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the military to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the late 1970s to the early 90s, and again in the start of the millennium, but dropped to just five seats in the last election.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a electoral platform highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is projected to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a platform centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its leader, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decrease. It is proposing business tax cuts and less welfare.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the previously successful, now scandal-hit FvD – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the BBB and NSC, are projected to decline, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The top issues so far have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – demonstrations against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the chronic Netherlands issue of accommodation (the country is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a combination of political groups from moderate left and center right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and one or more smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.
