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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still