Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Frank Stark
Frank Stark

A software engineer and tech writer passionate about open-source projects and AI advancements.